Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 34.6%Leader of 19 outcomes
Other 34.6%Forecasters
47
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 21, 24, 10:29 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next US Senate Minority Leader?
PolymarketChuck Schumer out as Senate Minority Leader?
KalshiWill Hakeem Jeffries be the Majority or Minority Leader in the House after the Midterms?
Manifold MarketsFirst House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House following the Midterms?
Manifold MarketsMike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
KalshiRules
Mike Johnson is the current Republican Speaker of the House and the #1 Republican in the US House of Representatives.
- If the Republicans lost their majority in the House, Johnson would likely become become the Republican Minority Leader, which would then be the position of the #1 Republican under a Democratic Party House.
- This market resolves to the name of the next Republican after Mike Johnson to assume the position of either Speaker of the House or Minority Leader.
- In the case of a leadership crisis like the one resulting from Speaker McCarthy's removal as speaker, the person appointed to Speaker pro tempore (if anyone) does not count.
- Only a permanent Republican Speaker or permanent Republican Minority Leader resolves this market.
- If you have suggestions for other candidates to add, please leave a comment below.