Who dies first: Trump or Biden?
US Politics
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Joe Biden 69.5%
Forecasters
56
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 24, 2:36 AM UTCJan 2, 60, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will die first? Trump or Biden?
Manifold MarketsEither Trump OR Biden will be deceased by June 30th 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Trump or Biden Live longer?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase-6.0pt49.5%
- No change+5.0pt48.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.7M
- 24h Vol
- $865.3K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+3.0pt100%
- September 25+10.5pt95%
- September 30+6.5pt85%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.1pt92%
- Republican Party-1.5pt8%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $499K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-1.4pt8.1%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+4.5pt100%
- October 31+2.8pt100%
- September 24+5.1pt100%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.7pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who dies first: Trump or Biden??
- Manifold Markets prices Joe Biden at 70% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Who dies first: Trump or Biden? resolve?
- Who dies first: Trump or Biden? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2060.