Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTrump 60.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 15, 26, 6:39 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 7:39 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+9.0pt80.2%
- Yes-9.0pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $17.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $217.8M
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-2.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Total Vol
- $31.8M
- 24h Vol
- $741.8K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change60.6%
- 25 bps increase35.6%
- 25 bps decrease-0.4pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Texas Senate winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump or Biden Live longer??
- Manifold Markets prices Trump at 61% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will Trump or Biden Live longer? resolve?
- Will Trump or Biden Live longer? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.