Current community forecast
Reform 40%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.8 pts
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 9:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:06 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Quebec General Election: Second Place
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Manifold MarketsRules
For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.2pt19%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+7.2pt54.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-8.0pt43.6%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-3.1pt35.4%
- Édouard Philippe31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Fraud+68.0pt99%
- Transgender+62.0pt99%
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline+55.0pt99%
+36 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.5pt18%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt4%
+39 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+2.0pt86%
- Republican Party-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $557.8K
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls??
- Manifold Markets prices Reform at 40% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? resolve?
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.