Current community forecast
Labour 53.4%-4.2ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 9:13 AMDec 31, 26, 10:06 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Conservatives14%
Volume trend
$610Jul 84d of dataJul 28
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For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.