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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls?
Manifold Markets

Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls?

One-OffPoliticsElectionEurope6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Conservatives 28.4%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

12

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Apr 28, 26, 9:13 AMDec 31, 26, 10:06 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Conservatives28%

Rules

For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
  • If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
  • If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
  • Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
  • If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.

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Rules

For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
  • If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
  • If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
  • Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
  • If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.