What are the current odds for Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election??

Manifold Markets prices Liberal Party of Canada at 87% as of September 1, 2026.

Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?

46.8 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

This market resolved: Liberal Party of Canada (87.2%)

Resolved: Sep 1, 2026, 4:51 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Liberal Party of Canada 87.2%+46.8pt

Leader of 4 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+50.0 pts

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jul 8, 26, 2:37 AMSep 1, 26, 4:51 AM

Probability Timeline

Bloc Québécois11%

Conservative Party of Canada1.4%

Liberal Party of Canada87.2%

Other0.3%

Liberal Party of Canada

+46.8 pts

87.2%

Bloc Québécois

-40.4 pts

11%

Conservative Party of Canada

-4.5 pts

1.4%

Other

-1.9 pts

0.3%

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the political party of the winning candidate in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election, triggered by Richard Martel's appointment to the Senate.
Resolution will be determined by the official results published by Elections Canada at https://elections.ca/ or a consensus of credible media sources.
If there is a need for a recount, this market will not resolve until the results of the recount are official.
Close date is indicative only.
As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.

Report a data issue with this market

Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?

46.8 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

This market resolved: Liberal Party of Canada (87.2%)

Resolved: Sep 1, 2026, 4:51 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Liberal Party of Canada 87.2%+46.8pt

Leader of 4 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+50.0 pts

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jul 8, 26, 2:37 AMSep 1, 26, 4:51 AM

Probability Timeline

Bloc Québécois11%

Conservative Party of Canada1.4%

Liberal Party of Canada87.2%

Other0.3%

Liberal Party of Canada

+46.8 pts

87.2%

Bloc Québécois

-40.4 pts

11%

Conservative Party of Canada

-4.5 pts

1.4%

Other

-1.9 pts

0.3%

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the political party of the winning candidate in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election, triggered by Richard Martel's appointment to the Senate.
Resolution will be determined by the official results published by Elections Canada at https://elections.ca/ or a consensus of credible media sources.
If there is a need for a recount, this market will not resolve until the results of the recount are official.
Close date is indicative only.
As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election??: Manifold Markets prices Liberal Party of Canada at 87% as of September 1, 2026.
When does Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? resolve?: Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? is scheduled to resolve on September 1, 2026.
How is Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?

Which party will win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?

Frequently asked questions

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