Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Tennessee's 3rd District?
0.9 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms15d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastRepublican Party — Chuck Fleischmann 95.9%+0.9ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 6:21 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Charles J. Fleischmann win the Tennessee 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill Derek Hawn win the Tennessee 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Tennessee's 5th District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Tennessee's 9th District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Tennessee's 1st District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Tennessee's 8th District?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
