Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Oklahoma's 4th District?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms13d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastRepublican Party — Tom Cole 96%-1.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.4 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 26, 6:13 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Tom Cole win the Oklahoma 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill Jena Nelson win the Oklahoma 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
