Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSolve a P3/6 in TST, RMM Day 1, or USAMO 91.7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+13.8 pts
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Jul 29, 26, 7:54 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of the following will I achieve?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle?
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Manifold MarketsUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiIs Earth flat?
PolymarketWill Duke University rank first overall in 2027?
ForecastExRules
I am part of the USA team selection test cycle for the 68th IMO.
- The relevant contests for this market are TST Day 1, TST Day 2, RMM Day 1, APMO, USAMO Day 1, and USAMO Day 2.
- Here are some past contest results:
- JMO 2026 (first time making any olympiad): 627 677
- TSTST 2026: 700 007 700
- Getting swept means scoring a 0, 1, or 2 on every problem.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030-3.0pt82%
- Before 2029-12.9pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $268.6K
- 24h Vol
- $81.3K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+13.0pt58%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $127.5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+4.0pt49%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle??
- Manifold Markets prices Solve a P3/6 in TST, RMM Day 1, or USAMO at 92% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle? resolve?
- Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I am part of the USA team selection test cycle for the 68th IMO.