Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 USAMO and MOP 72.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 6:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:56 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Resolves yes to any of these that I achieve.
- If I do not attend pumac, hmmt, cmimc, or arml, the corresponding questions will resolve N/A. previous results:
- Pumac 2025 17th NT, 17th Combo HMMT 2026 79th place, top 50 in algnt and combo CMIMC 2026 5th place geo, few points off of top 10 overall (176 vs 184) ARML 2026 7/10, 11 10 11 11 00 USAJMO 2026 qual (through protection) and mop 30/42
- i reserve the right to bet on this market (but of course i will try my hardest on each of these)
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030-3.0pt82%
- Before 2029-12.9pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $268.6K
- 24h Vol
- $81.3K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+13.0pt58%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $127.5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+4.0pt49%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of the following will I achieve??
- Manifold Markets prices 2027 USAMO and MOP at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which of the following will I achieve? resolve?
- Which of the following will I achieve? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which of the following will I achieve? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes to any of these that I achieve.