What are the current odds for Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle??

Manifold Markets prices Solve at least 3 of {P2/5 (non-APMO), P4 (APMO)} at 84.6% as of November 3, 2026.

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Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle?

One-OffScience7mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Solve at least 3 of {P2/5 (non-APMO), P4 (APMO)} 84.6%

Leader of 21 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Stale

Jul 30, 26, 2:08 AM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

I am part of the 2027 TST.

A solve is counted as a 5, 6, or 7 on a problem.
Getting swept means 0 solves; sweeping means getting 3 solves (5 on APMO).
See @/vincentWang/will-i-qualify-for-rmm-2027 for RMM 2027 qualification market.
TST 2026: 700 700 720 77707 270776
TSTST 2026: 770 770 770

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Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle?

Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle?

Open markets

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Open markets

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?