Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFrance 39.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 5:57 AM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which country will be the largest arms importer in the world in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
In almost every year for 70 years, the two largest arms exporters in the world were the United States and Russia.
- According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), this feature of the global armaments trade has changed in recent years.
- While the United States remains the world's #1 arms exporter, Russia has ceased to be #2, ceding the position to France in 2021-2022 and 2024-2025, and Germany in 2023.
- Which country will be the 2nd largest arms exporter in the world in 2026, according to data published by SIPRI?
- SIPRI typically updates annual arms export figures each March with an accompanying report (the most recent report was published Mar 2026, see also Mar 2025, Mar 2024, Mar 2023).
- SIPRI's arms export figures are available on their database.
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
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- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which country will be the 2nd largest arms exporter in the world in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices France at 39% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which country will be the 2nd largest arms exporter in the world in 2026? resolve?
- Which country will be the 2nd largest arms exporter in the world in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Which country will be the 2nd largest arms exporter in the world in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In almost every year for 70 years, the two largest arms exporters in the world were the United States and Russia.