Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFrance 39.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
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15
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 5:57 AM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which country will be the largest arms importer in the world in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
In almost every year for 70 years, the two largest arms exporters in the world were the United States and Russia.
- According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), this feature of the global armaments trade has changed in recent years.
- While the United States remains the world's #1 arms exporter, Russia has ceased to be #2, ceding the position to France in 2021-2022 and 2024-2025, and Germany in 2023.
- Which country will be the 2nd largest arms exporter in the world in 2026, according to data published by SIPRI?
- SIPRI typically updates annual arms export figures each March with an accompanying report (the most recent report was published Mar 2026, see also Mar 2025, Mar 2024, Mar 2023).
- SIPRI's arms export figures are available on their database.