Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?
2.6 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS PoliticsChessSports26d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSecond Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative 80%+2.6ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Apr 21, 26, 1:25 AM UTCNov 17, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
I will add new ballot measure strikes as they meet the requirements to appear on the ballot, and rename them once their ballot name and number are available.
- If a listed measure ends up not being on the ballot I will resolve that strike to NO, though I will try not to list any measures I am not reasonably confident will end up on the ballot.
