Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIn January 2029 74.8%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 21, 25, 2:17 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2028?
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FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurRules
Donald Trump is currently in his second term as President of the United Staets.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States:
- "the named outcome" resolves YES if Trump's presidency ends before January 1, 2029 (e.g., is removed from office, or does not complete his second term)
- "the named outcome" resolves YES if Trump completes a full second term ending somtime the named outcome (specifically January 20, 2029, when the next president is expected to be sworn in, though the question is open to anytime during the month of January 2029 in order to account for some possibility that the date of the inaguration changes)
- "the named outcome" resolves YES if Trump remains president beyond January 31, 2029
