When will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States?
3.3 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIn January 2029 74.8%+3.3ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Feb 21, 25, 2:17 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Donald Trump is currently in his second term as President of the United Staets.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States:
- "the named outcome" resolves YES if Trump's presidency ends before January 1, 2029 (e.g., is removed from office, or does not complete his second term)
- "the named outcome" resolves YES if Trump completes a full second term ending somtime the named outcome (specifically January 20, 2029, when the next president is expected to be sworn in, though the question is open to anytime during the month of January 2029 in order to account for some possibility that the date of the inaguration changes)
- "the named outcome" resolves YES if Trump remains president beyond January 31, 2029
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States??
- Manifold Markets prices In January 2029 at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States? resolve?
- When will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is When will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Donald Trump is currently in his second term as President of the United Staets.