Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNot before 2027 85%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 23, 8:33 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves to the earliest date when EITHER Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire outside of the Nagorno-Karabakh region for a continuous period of two weeks or more, OR if military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan outside of Nagorno-Karabakh result in 100 or more cumulative casualties.