Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNot before 2027 85%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 23, 8:33 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.4%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBreach in the ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026?
FutuurWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the earliest date when EITHER Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire outside of the Nagorno-Karabakh region for a continuous period of two weeks or more, OR if military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan outside of Nagorno-Karabakh result in 100 or more cumulative casualties.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war??
- Manifold Markets prices Not before 2027 at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war? resolve?
- When will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is When will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the earliest date when EITHER Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire outside of the Nagorno-Karabakh region for a continuous period of two weeks or more, OR if military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan outside of Nagorno-Karabakh result in 100 or more cumulative casualties.