Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastWill take France but ultimately be defeated 68.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleOct 18, 26, 1:33 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the single option that accurately describes the outcome of Matt's 3rd campaign/playthrough as Germany once the game concludes or reaches a decisive end state.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if Germany fails to capitulate/conquer France primarily due to Callum's Royal Air Force (RAF) interception, air superiority, or defense preventing the invasion.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if Germany successfully captures or capitulates France, but the Axis/German side is ultimately defeated before winning the game.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if Matt achieves a recognized victory condition for Germany/the Axis according to the rules of the game being played.
- Draw: Resolves YES if the players mutually agree to a stalemate or the game engine/rules formally designate the match as a draw.