What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]?
One-OffUS PoliticsPolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastWent to an Ivy League school 85.2%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 1:37 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about the person who creates AGI?
Manifold MarketsTerm limit for US Supreme Court justices enacted in 2026?
FutuurWhich Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a binding code of ethics for the US Supreme Court be passed in Congress in 2026?
FutuurNext Justice to leave the US Supreme Court
FutuurRules
What will be true about the next person successfully confirmed to the United States Supreme Court?
- This person must be successfully confirmed by the Senate before answers will Resolve.
- Market will extend as needed, feel free to add more traits.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase-1.0pt49.5%
- No change-1.0pt48.5%
- 25 bps decrease-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.3M
- 24h Vol
- $2.3M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.9M
- 24h Vol
- $552.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+4.0pt58%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt31%
- Republicans sweep-4.0pt10%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Scott Jennings+5.0pt22%
- Anna Kelly-3.0pt16.5%
- Danielle Alvarez7.3%
+43 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.5M
KALSHIFlorida Governor winner?
- Byron Donalds-1.0pt80%
- David Jolly20%
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.2K
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Alaska Senate winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]??
- Manifold Markets prices Went to an Ivy League school at 85% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]? resolve?
- What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: What will be true about the next person successfully confirmed to the United States Supreme Court?