Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastHe will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator 89.6%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
41
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 24, 2:42 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiRules
If there's a generally accepted person it will resolve according to the characteristics of that person.
- If there's not a generally accepted person but there is a generally accepted company this resolves to the CEO of that company.
- If there is neither a generally accepted person, nor a generally accepted company, these may resolve to prob according to the characteristics of the various candidates.
Open markets
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%-1.0pt97%
- Above 2.65%+32.0pt94%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $117.2K
- 24h Vol
- $95.2K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.0pt69%
- Moonshot-6.0pt14%
- Z.ai+2.3pt6%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.0pt85.4%
- Moonshot-1.9pt9.7%
- Z.ai1.9%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+8.0pt81%
+7 more outcomes
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true about the person who creates AGI??
- Manifold Markets prices He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator at 90% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does What will be true about the person who creates AGI? resolve?
- What will be true about the person who creates AGI? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What will be true about the person who creates AGI? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If there's a generally accepted person it will resolve according to the characteristics of that person.