Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast71-80 seconds 46.8%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 21, 25, 8:13 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight by end of January 31st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Doomsday Clock reach 80 seconds to midnight in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+0.7pt98%
- September 25-8.0pt84%
- September 30-5.0pt76%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $807.2K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $339.1K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+3.0pt13%
- September 30+1.4pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt60%
- October 31+4.0pt36%
- September 30+3.0pt11%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt96%
- September 25+4.0pt88%
- September 23+8.0pt75%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What time at midnight will the Doomsday clock will be in 2027.?
- Manifold Markets prices 71-80 seconds at 47% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does What time at midnight will the Doomsday clock will be in 2027. resolve?
- What time at midnight will the Doomsday clock will be in 2027. is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.