Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.7%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 26, 7:52 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What time at midnight will the Doomsday clock will be in 2027.
Manifold MarketsWill the Doomsday Clock reach 80 seconds to midnight in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRules
The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making.
- It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet...
- ...Since 2008, the Science and Security Board has met twice a year to discuss world events and reset the clock as necessary.
- Full timeline of the Doomsday Clock is available here.
- Market will resolve based on press releases/official statements posted here:
- https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+0.7pt98%
- September 25-8.0pt84%
- September 30-5.0pt76%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $807.2K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $339.1K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+3.0pt13%
- September 30+1.4pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt60%
- October 31+4.0pt36%
- September 30+3.0pt11%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt96%
- September 25+4.0pt88%
- September 23+8.0pt75%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight by end of January 31st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight by end of January 31st, 2027? resolve?
- Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight by end of January 31st, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027.
- How is Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight by end of January 31st, 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making.