What are the current odds for Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers??

Manifold Markets prices No at 77.7% as of November 11, 2026.

How is Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 77.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 43 minutes ago

Nov 1, 26, 10:39 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:37 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting or official investigative disclosures confirm that U.S. Representative Haley Stevens (or an affiliated entity under her direction) received direct financial compensation, an explicit quid pro quo payment, or monetary consideration in exchange for endorsing Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the Michigan U.S. Senate race.
Standard campaign contributions made to her campaign committee or leadership PAC in the ordinary course of politics do not qualify unless established by an official investigative finding (such as the Federal Election Commission, House Ethics Committee, or Department of Justice) or verified mainstream investigative reporting to be an illegal or direct payment specifically contingent upon her endorsement.
Credible sources include major consensus news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, or Wall Street Journal) or official government reports from bodies such as the Federal Election Commission or House Committee on Ethics.
If no credible confirmation of financial payment for the endorsement is published by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.
On November 1, 2026, two days before the general election, Democratic Representative Haley Stevens announced her endorsement of Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race.