U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
Trade PolicyOne-OffGeopoliticsLatin America1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.1%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 9, 26, 2:33 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Here is a revised draft that eliminates the potential ambiguities regarding international waters, proxy forces, and other U.S. agencies, while keeping the core conditions of your original market intact.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military or the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducts a deliberate kinetic action against the sovereign territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Brazil, or against Brazilian state/military assets operating in international domains.
- "Kinetic action" is defined as the active, deliberate use of lethal or physically destructive force.
- Examples include airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, naval bombardments, or ground combat engagements.
- Covert & Proxy Actions: The action must be carried out directly by U.S. military personnel, CIA operatives, or private military companies (PMCs) actively contracted and directed by these entities.
