Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 53%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 13, 25, 4:48 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
https://ourworldindata.org/military-spending
- 2010 was the year with the highest total US military spending so far.
- This market resolves to yes if Our World in Data (or a suitable replacement if it stops being a reliable source) shows the military spending of 2025 or 2026 to be above the 2010 total, adjusted for inflation.
- If they're all lower (or the US is no longer a country at that point), this resolves to no.
- If that data becomes completely unavailable, this resolves to N/A.