Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 7:54 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump be impeached before Jan 20th 2029
Manifold MarketsWill Marco Rubio serve as Secretary of State until Jan 20th 2029?
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if the US uses force or the threat of force to take control of the island by the end of Trump's second term.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Edge cases will be decided by me in accordance with the outcome most closely matching the spirit of the question.
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029? resolve?
- US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 19, 2029.
- How is US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the US uses force or the threat of force to take control of the island by the end of Trump's second term.