Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 7:54 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the US uses force or the threat of force to take control of the island by the end of Trump's second term.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Edge cases will be decided by me in accordance with the outcome most closely matching the spirit of the question.
