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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market
Manifold Markets

US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection4mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Connie Chan advances; Scott Wiener wins 67%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters

14

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale
May 13, 26, 4:10 PMNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
Saikat Chakrabarti advances; Saikat Chakrabarti wins
0.5%

Selected outcome

Connie Chan advances; Scott Wiener wins67%

Rules

All options assume Scott Wiener advances to the general election -- market resolves N/A if not.

Manifold Markets
  • For example, if the primary result ends up as Connie Chan + Scott Wiener, then we know the Saikat options will resolve No, and after the final result one of the remaining options will resolve Yes.
  • Market closes based on official results https://www.sf.gov/departments--department-elections.

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Rules

All options assume Scott Wiener advances to the general election -- market resolves N/A if not.

Manifold Markets
  • For example, if the primary result ends up as Connie Chan + Scott Wiener, then we know the Saikat options will resolve No, and after the final result one of the remaining options will resolve Yes.
  • Market closes based on official results https://www.sf.gov/departments--department-elections.