KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Trump +5 or more · —
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Stored price
Trump +20 or more 49.5%Market line of 8 lines
Trump +20 or more 49.5%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5
Open interest
$41.2K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Trump +5 or moreSpread
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Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Oct 20, 26, 4:03 PM UTCDec 15, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Trump +5 or more
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.
Rules for each outcome
- Trump +5 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +10 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +15 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +18 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +20 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +22 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +25 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +30 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 30 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
