Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 20, 26, 4:06 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
PolymarketPakistan military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketWill a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?
Manifold MarketsYemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRules
resolves according to credible reporting
- Saudi Arabian airstrikes resolve NO
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+1.4pt97%
- September 25-2.5pt86%
- September 30-2.0pt78%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $767.5K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 31-1.0pt35%
- September 30-2.0pt9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $332.9K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+4.0pt14%
- September 30+1.0pt3%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- No Meeting by September 30-0.6pt87.9%
- USA-0.3pt10.1%
- Switzerland+0.3pt1%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Iran leadership change by which date?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US airstrikes Yemen in September??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does US airstrikes Yemen in September? resolve?
- US airstrikes Yemen in September? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is US airstrikes Yemen in September? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves according to credible reporting