Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?
EconomyOne-OffMacro & Economy3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMay 30, 25, 8:04 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the unemployment for recent US college grads exceeds 25% at any point before 2030.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (IPUMS)
- https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment
- Context: The highest data-point so far was 13.4% in May 2020 at the beginning of COVID.
- 2035 market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/unemployment-rate-for-recent-us-col-zQPLNstLPp
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030? resolve?
- Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the unemployment for recent US college grads exceeds 25% at any point before 2030.
