Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 15, 26, 11:23 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the unemployment for recent US college grads exceeds 25% at any point before 2035.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (IPUMS)
- https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment
- The highest data-point so far was 13.4% in May 2020 at the beginning of COVID.
- 2030 market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/unemployment-rate-for-recent-us-col
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417K
- 24h Vol
- $41.5K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $638K
- 24h Vol
- $34K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $360.8K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035? resolve?
- Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2034.
- How is Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the unemployment for recent US college grads exceeds 25% at any point before 2035.