KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.0% 87%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$5.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:00 AM UTCJan 8, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US unemployment rate at year-end 2027
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2028
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2029
KalshiWill the US unemployment rate hit more than 6% in any month of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExUS unemployment rate at year-end 2030
KalshiRules
If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released.
- It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31.
- The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2026.
- Values will be compared as published without rounding.
- Later revisions will not affect the outcome.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US unemployment rate at year-end 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above 4.0% at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 resolve?
- US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027.
- How is US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.