Current community forecast
No 89.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 26, 1:20 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
UK governmental approval rating among women falls below 5% in 2026.
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PolymarketRules
According to
- https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval?crossBreak=female
- The UK government approval rating among women falls below 5% by the end of the year, or something destabilising happens like the government is dissolved, or replaced by another at a time other than an ordinary regular election.
- If they are voted out in an ordinary and normally timed electoral manner then it resolved N/A. At time of writing (4th of January), the rating is 9%, and it was recently (and plausibly again soon) 7%.
- I think it's worth asking the question of them again for a new year. 🤡🃏 Unfortunately I guess I have to say that the alternatives are worse 🤷♂️.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for UK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does UK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)? resolve?
- UK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is UK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: According to