What are the current odds for Trump impeached before Iran war's end??

Manifold Markets prices No at 81.5% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Trump impeached before Iran war's end? resolve?

Trump impeached before Iran war's end? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 81.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 12 hours ago

Stale

Jul 27, 26, 12:51 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives before the Iran war ends.
The Iran war is defined as the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran.
The war ends when a ceasefire agreement is formally signed and takes effect, or when major combat operations cease for 14 days
Resolution will be determined by:
Impeachment: Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges