Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.8%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 8:04 PM UTCMar 25, 27, 7:48 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump impeached before Iran war's end?
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Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be impeached?
KalshiWill Trump be impeached by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives before the Iran war ends.
- The Iran war is defined as the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran.
- The war ends when a ceasefire agreement is formally signed and takes effect, or when major combat operations cease for 14 days
- Resolution will be determined by:
- Impeachment: Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges