"Trojan horse"-like drone attack on US military planes before 2028
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 6, 25, 5:04 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
Resolves YES if there is an attack on US military airplanes parked on a US military base similar to Ukraine's drone attack on Russian strategic bombers before 2028.
- The US military base doesn't have to be in the US.
- Any US military base in other countries (like for example Okinawa or Ramstein bases) count.
- The drones have to be launched from foot or from a vehicle that's either a civilian vehicle (like the truck Ukraine used, but a civilian type boat or even an airplane like a Cessna would be ok).
- The drones have to be launched from within 5km of their targets.
- It doesn't matter for resolution of this question if the attack does any damage.
