Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.4%
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Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 22, 3:53 AM UTCFeb 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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Following on this useful input from Steven, I shall clarify my resolution criteria.
- Steven: Does this resolve NO if AI recursive self-improvement results from a gradual increase in generality?
- Nathan: I say 'allows for' recursive self-improvement (FOOM-after-deployment).
- It might be superhuman right out of the box (FOOM-during-training).
- I will resolve YES if it becomes strongly superhuman by any means at any speed, and humanity manages to solve AI safety via alignment or governance sufficiently to prevent catastrophic conflict.
- I will also resolve YES if there is a conflict and the AI is clearly winning or has won (if I'm still alive to do so).