When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

AI BaseballOne-Off9y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Feb 28, 26, 1:48 AM UTCJan 1, 36, 6:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

Report a data issue with this market

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

AI BaseballOne-Off9y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Feb 28, 26, 1:48 AM UTCJan 1, 36, 6:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each??: Manifold Markets prices Before Dec 2035 at 88.7% as of September 26, 2026.
When does When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? resolve?: When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2036.
How is When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

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When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

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