When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
0.5 pts (24h)AIOne-Off8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2035 78.8%+0.5ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 30, 25, 3:46 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 4:44 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2035 at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] resolve?
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As reported by OpenAI.