PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
December 19%
December 19%Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$130
Liquidity
$693.8
Low liquidityOpen interest
$5.1K
Bid / Ask
— / —
DecemberSpread
—
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 11:59 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · December
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.
- Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? · Before Jan 1, 2029 66%
