OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
4.0 pts (24h)ExchangeAITechOne-OffCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Google 76%-4.0pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$5.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 26.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
1
7d Change
+9.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
May 19, 26, 8:29 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "the named outcome" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
- NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
- If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027.
- If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
- If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
- If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
