KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 9:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Google · —
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Stored price
Google 61.5%
Google 61.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
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Open interest unknownBid / Ask
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GoogleSpread
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Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 8:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Google
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Rules
If Google's top model has a higher Arena Score than Anthropic's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Each company's top model is its highest-ranked model in the Overall category of the leaderboard, with style control removed (Adjustments: None). A model belongs to the company the leaderboard lists as its organization. Preliminary models count. If the two top models show the same Arena Score, the one ranked higher on the leaderboard wins.
Rules for each outcome
- If Google's top model has a higher Arena Score than Anthropic's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Anthropic
- If Anthropic's top model has a higher Arena Score than Google's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
