Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? resolve?

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 15, 2027.

How is Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria (strict):

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-3.8pt88.7%
• Anthropic+1.8pt10.3%
• OpenAI+0.5pt1%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$154.6K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt28%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.8pt22%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.2pt17%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202794%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt94%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+5.0pt93%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+8.0pt83%
• December 15,+9.0pt82%
• November 30,-2.0pt60%

+9 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.7pt55.5%
• Gemini-2.8pt31.9%
• ChatGPT-1.6pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt53.5%
• Google-3.0pt36.4%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
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• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?