Current community forecast
No 74%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 2:55 PM UTCJan 15, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services in 2026?
KalshiWill Meta release Llama 5 this year?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta publicly releases a model documented with context window >= 5,000,000 tokens by 2026-12-31.
- Must be an official release with public documentation or official product/API announcement.
- Rumors, leaks, unofficial benchmarks, or third-party claims do NOT count.
- If no qualifying official release appears by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 15, 2027.
- How is Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria (strict):