Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.6%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 2:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
As agent frameworks mature, high-volume, low-cost "inference-optimized" or highly distilled models may completely take over background agent loops from high-cost frontier models.
- This market resolves to YES if, on December 31, 2026, each of the top 3 models individually costs less than $1.00 per 1 million tokens.
- For a model to qualify, the sum of its individual input price per million tokens and its output price per million tokens must be less than $1.00.
- If Model #1, Model #2, and Model #3 all individually cost under $1.00/M tokens, this market resolves to YES.
- If any model in the top 3 spots costs $1.00/M tokens or more, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolves based on the "This Month" filter of the OpenRouter LLM Leaderboard (openrouter.ai/rankings) on Dec 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT (-ish).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As agent frameworks mature, high-volume, low-cost "inference-optimized" or highly distilled models may completely take over background agent loops from high-cost frontier models.