Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore H2 2030 81.4%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 30, 25, 3:41 PM UTCJul 30, 28, 3:31 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWill a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketWhen will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketRules
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.