What are the current odds for Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years??

Manifold Markets prices No at 71.9% as of October 27, 2026.

Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?

One-OffAI1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 71.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Jun 28, 23, 7:24 PM UTCJun 28, 28, 7:00 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This video predicts that a model will achieve 100% performance on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding Benchmark.

This will resolve YES if a model is listed as having achieved 100 percent performance on the MMLU on papers with code, in a technical document, or published article by 3:00 PM EST June 28, 2028.
This will resolve NO if a model is not listed as ahving achieved 100 percent performance on the MMLU.