SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
One-OffAIChinaTechGeopoliticsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (93%)
Resolved: Oct 11, 2026, 9:09 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes93%
No7%
Won
Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
