Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
2.3 pts (24h)One-Off2026 US MidtermsUS PoliticsElectionPolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastKansas 27.3%+2.3ptLeader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+20.7 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 26, 1:54 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ohio elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 4 Democratic Representatives?
Manifold MarketsWill Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?
Manifold MarketsBluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
KalshiWill a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader?
KalshiWill a Democratic Senator say something positive about Trump's death within 24 hours of it happening?
Manifold MarketsWill a Democratic Senator say or post “glad he’s dead” within 24 hours of trumps death for ANY reason?
Manifold MarketsRules
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreddestdsen/reddest-state-to-elect-a-democratic-senator/kxreddestdsen-27jan03
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Kalshi's rules: If Texas is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
