Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 53.7%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 25, 2:41 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if anyone intentionally uses a nuclear bomb/missile on someone else.
- Reactor meltdowns and other mistakes do not count, even if they are intentionally orchestrated.
- A weapon that is launched with the intent to explode counts regardless of whether it lands or is defended.
- Resolves based on credible news outlets or government statements.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Nuclear weapon used offensively before 2100??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Nuclear weapon used offensively before 2100? resolve?
- Nuclear weapon used offensively before 2100? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is Nuclear weapon used offensively before 2100? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if anyone intentionally uses a nuclear bomb/missile on someone else.