Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 1:34 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 53.7%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 25, 2:41 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold MarketsIf a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if anyone intentionally uses a nuclear bomb/missile on someone else.
- Reactor meltdowns and other mistakes do not count, even if they are intentionally orchestrated.
- A weapon that is launched with the intent to explode counts regardless of whether it lands or is defended.
- Resolves based on credible news outlets or government statements.