Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 12:52 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWhat cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
KalshiAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
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KalshiRules
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
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- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
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+39 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
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+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
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- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
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KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
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+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026? resolve?
- No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.