PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 84%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 19.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
2
7d Change
-5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 25, 12:36 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $209.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $697.1M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56.6%
- Flávio Bolsonaro39.4%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+0.5pt99%
- Seth Moulton-0.9pt1%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt33%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt27%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.5pt86%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+0.9pt13%
- Augusto Cury-0.1pt1%
+15 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Supreme Court vacancy in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 84% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? resolve?
- Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.