How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
6.0 pts (24h)YearlyPoliticsUS PoliticsElection
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 5 (97%)
Resolved: Sep 16, 2026, 4:15 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
5 95.1%+7.1ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$8.9K
Liquidity
$125K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleJan 18, 26, 5:00 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
591%
7 or more2%
95.1%
2%
2%
1%
0%
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ForecastExRules
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal RegisterThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox News
- To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
- If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.