Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMarch 31, 2027 66.2%+16.2ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+16.2 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 8:32 AM UTCApr 14, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
PolymarketWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
LimitlessWill the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
PolymarketWill the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
Manifold MarketsRules
These markets will resolve identically to these ones, on Polymarket: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by the named outcome?
- On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: 404 - Page not foundplayShow navigation menuplaysearchsearchblinking-dotfacebooktwitteryoutubeinstagram-colored-outlinerssblueskytiktok-colored-outline
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
- Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? [Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets prices March 31, 2027 at 66% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? [Polymarket] resolve?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? [Polymarket] is scheduled to resolve on April 14, 2027.
- How is Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? [Polymarket] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: These markets will resolve identically to these ones, on Polymarket: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by the named outcome?